This morning I was running the stats and trends report as I do on the 20th of each month. I noticed a positive trend from February to March where inventory seems to be going down while pending & closed sales are slowly increasing. Here is what I found… Studying South Beach real estate in February, there were 2401 condos for sale. In March there are 2370. Not significant yet closed sales went from 33 to 55. Of the Sunny Isles real estate trends, there were 1664 condos for sale in February while today there are 1366 with 19 closing last month and 23 closing in March. Bal Harbour real estate showed noticeable improvement with 724 condos for sale in February while 599 condos are for sale today. Even the small island of North Bay Village real estate dropped from 432 condos for sale, to today’s figures at 401 condos on the market. Maybe insignificant but in the right direction when looking for the bottom of the market is concerned. If these trends continue, then it won’t be long before we start to see a single digit appreciation along Dade Beaches. Note this does not include Downtown Miami or anywhere on the mainland only specific to THE BEACHES. Today’s buyers, many of which are International (Hello Canada!), want oceanfront. Enough said.

“Be scared when everyone is greedy and be brave when everyone is scared”… Warren Buffet

Check out this information received today from my good friend up in Flagler County…

1.   The number of Realtor assisted sales pending for single family homes in Lee County was 1,088 on Feb. 14, up 33 percent from 821 a month earlier.

2.   The Realtor® Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach (Lee County) had an 85.4 percent upswing in pending single family home sales in the last 10 weeks.  The number of months it takes to sell all residential properties has dropped to 12 months from a high of 22.98 months in December 2007.

3.   In Martin County, there were 182 pending sales on January 1.  Today, there are 345 pending sales, representing an increase of 90 percent.

4.   The Emerald Coast Association of Realtors® (Okaloosa County) reports their pending home sales were 383 in January and rose to 473 for February, representing a 23 percent increase.

5.   Pinellas County reported 600 single family units under contract in February, up 23 percent from 489 a month earlier.

6.   Marco Island (Collier County) reports pending sales numbers on March 1, 2008 at 135 while a year ago (March 1, 2007) this number was 104.  Their pending sales on January 1, 2008 were 77 and in March 1, 2008, pending home sales were 135, up 75 percent.

7.   The Realtor® Association of Greater Ft Lauderdale (Broward County) has a forecast of pending sales that is quite impressive.  Their single family pending sales (which includes condos and townhomes) totaled 529 in January but their pending inventory forecast for the month of February is 871.  That is an increase of 65 percent.

8.   Palm Beach County has seen a drastic increase in single family homes sold between January and March this year.  Between January 14 and February 14, 2008, 672 homes were sold.  Between February 15 and March 10, 2008, 827 homes sold for an increase of nearly 30 percent month to month.

9.   The Pensacola Association of Realtors® (Escambia County) reported pending sales at 297 (includes single family homes and condos) in January 2008.  In March 2008, this number rose to 345, an increase of 16 percent.

10. The Heartland Association of Realtors® (Highlands County) had 10 pending home sales in January 2008 and 43 in February 2008.  This is an increase of over 300 percent.

11. The Venice Area Board of Realtors® (Sarasota County) reported 110 pending sales in February 2008 compared to 85 in January 2008.  This is an increase of 29 percent.

12. Naples Area Board of Realtors® (Collier County) had 513 pending sales in February 2008 compared to 413 pending sales in January 2008, an increase of 24 percent.  Also, the pending sales for February 2008 are 10 percent higher than pending sales in February 2007 (464).

13. Flagler County Association of Realtors® (Flagler County) did not have any pending sale in January 2008 but had 20 pending sales from February 1, 2008 until now.

14. The West Volusia Association of Realtors® MLS (Volusia County) shows a 34 percent increase in home sales in February 2008 over January 2008.

15.  The Orlando Regional Realtor® Association report s an increase in pending sales in both Orange and Seminole Counties.  In Orange County, pending home sales increased by 29 percent from February to March and in Seminole County, pending home sales went up from 331 to 404, a 22 percent increase.

16. The Tallahassee Board of Realtors® (Leon County) reports an increase in their pending sales both from a year ago and from January 2008.  Today, the pending home sales in Leon County are 410 compared to 325 in January 2008, an increase of 26 percent.  A year ago, pending home sales in Leon County was 283.

17. Amelia Island Nassau County Association of Realtors® (Nassau County) MLS shows pending home sales at 150 in March 2008, up 83 percent from 82 pending sales in January 2008.

18. The Sarasota Association of Realtors® MLS (Sarasota County) reported 654 sales pending (single-family and condo) in February 2008, an increase of 27 percent over the 516 sales reported pending in January 2008.  In addition, Sarasota had 418 closed sales in February 2008, up 28 percent from the 327 closed sales in January 2008.

John M. Sebree Vice President Public Policy Florida Association of REALTORS®

P.O. Box 1853 Tallahassee, FL 32302 850.224.1400 (Office)

http://media.floridarealtors.org/GreatTimeToBuy

A new report from the Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund Inc. finds that Florida’s housing market slowed in 2007 in nearly every county it analyzed. The report also showed that real estate markets flattened out in spring 2007, before the subprime mortgage crisis in August knocked markets down another 10 percent across the state. Since then, the state’s housing market has flattened and is expected to begin to recover during the next several years. The 2008 Fund Florida Real Estate Forecast, commissioned by Florida based Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund’s Consumer Education Campaign, created by economist Dr. Hank Fishkind using deed data for more than 30 Florida counties. The report provides us a snapshot of the national economic outlook and 33 county specific forecasts for 2008 through 2010.

“Florida is one of the leading states for job creation and outperformed the rest of the country despite the housing market meltdown,” Fishkind says. ‘The state’s population growth also slowed, but is still nearly greater than all of the other Southeastern states put together. Florida has a very large and powerful economy that has gone through a cyclical downshift, but Florida’s economy is still outperforming compared to the rest of the nation. Florida has created a tremendous amount of wealth and despite many of the problems that loose lending practices and subprime mortgages have caused the state now has the highest level of homeownership ever. The market has had some indigestion now, but housing markets will return to normal during the next few years. The damage for some is significant, but in the aggregate, Florida still had some significant economic gains.”

Florida is netting 750 new residents each day. Since November 2007, I’ve been experiencing an increase in inquiries and sales from both International and National customers. In attempting to time the bottom of the market, there may be greater risk by waiting too long with the could have, should have mentality. If you love Miami’s excitement and waterfront lifestyle today is a great time to get a bargain deal. I advise customers to have a 3 to 5 year outlook as a place to love & enjoy with family and friends. I believe there are bottom line bargains each week and promote them regularly to my direct clients.

In studying Sunny Isles real estate to South Beach real estate for the last 30 days, there have been 30 closed sales on Collins Avenue (partly because of the Holiday season). In the last 90 days there were 117 closed sales and 286 closed units in the previous 6 months. Today’s Collins Avenue inventory stands at 2172 total condos over a 15 mile stretch (Jan 8^th, 2008). The condos priced in the top 1% are selling on average at 95% sales price to list price ratio. The deals are exciting as my buyer clients are saving sometimes 10 to 20% off. The seller’s I represent are pricing there’s competitively (in the top 1% range) and the luxury condos of Sunny Isles are getting serious offers accepted. In the next 18 months my forecast is a distinct separation between the mainland of Downtown Miami Dade and the Miami Beach FL real estate market. Think about this as tourists and International customers want the luxury oceanfront living the beaches of Miami offer. It’s a great big part what makes Miami so amazing! Let me know if you have any thoughts or a suggestion on this topic of Florida’s rebound occurring in the following years. I will be updating new statistics and trends after this first quarter 08. Best regards!